Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been killed following a massive and ongoing Israeli and US strikes on Iran. US President Donald Trump has called on Iranian forces to surrender and urged the Iranian public to rise up against the ruling regime.
In response, Iran has launched ballistic missiles and drones at US interests and allied targets across the region, striking Israel, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan.
Trump said the operation is intended to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, geopolitical conditions give broader perspective to the matter. Arguably, Trump and his administration can be termed a master strategist in modern American statecraft, whether for good or bad. For Trump and his administration, the central strategic question is China.
Action speaks louder than words
Actions taken by Trump administration in recent times suggest how focus they are on their central strategic question — China. Trump administration knows that for the next hundred years of American global leadership, China is the only true challenger. Accordingly, US’ strategy is focused on the greatest vulnerability of any industrial superpower — energy.
Example of Venezuela
What happened in Venezuela, was the example of the same strategy, Trump administration is looking forward for. By isolating and constraining Venezuelan oil flows, Washington disrupted a major external energy channel that China had spent years cultivating. Now, with Venezuela increasingly aligned with the US, its oil shipments are firmly under American control.
Now Iran
Iran is the latest example of how serious is Trump administration about its strategy to outpass China. On the surface, US pressure and strikes on Iran appear nuclear-related, but strategically, they may be about energy leverage. Analysts say that China imports over 10 million barrels of oil per day and it is the primary buyer of Iran’s seaborne oil exports. Nearly one-fifth of global oil supply moves through a single narrow chokepoint — the Strait of Hormuz, which is directly threatened by conflict.
In geopolitical terms, geography is believed to be destiny. Influence over Iran means influence over Strait of Hormuz, a major shift in geopolitics.
Broader strategic picture
Broader strategic picture, which the world rarely sees is the American control. The US is already controling Venezuelan supply. It is very near to get control of Iranian supply, with which it can control and monitor Middle Eastern energy flows, using overwhelming US military and naval power.
If China’s major external energy lifelines were to come under US strategic control, the impact would be felt across factories, heavy industry and AI infrastructure, exerting pressure without direct military confrontation.
From Washington’s perspective, a US-aligned or weakened Iran would enhance energy leverage over Beijing without direct confrontation. Historically, control over a rival’s supply lines has often curtailed the longevity of its challenge.
Analysts suggest that, with limited but strategic actions, such an approach was intended to prolong American global dominance, potentially earning recognition as one of the most significant grand strategies of the 21st century.
