On Monday, a cascade of developments was brought by a conflict that started ten days ago and has not slowed down for a single hour since. A new Iranian supreme leader was named before sunrise. Oil crossed $100 a barrel for the first time in years. Dubai’s main airport was hit by a drone. And the United States told its embassy staff to get out of Saudi Arabia.
Here is everything, from today’s headlines all the way back to where this started.
Today’s updates
The biggest news of the morning came from Tehran. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country’s new supreme leader. Iranian state TV read out a statement from the Assembly of Experts saying he was selected on strong votes and urging the nation to unite behind him. Scenes of celebration were broadcast from parts of Tehran.
He is a secretive figure who has not been seen or heard from publicly since the war began. But he had long been considered a contender for the position even before his father was killed. He now controls Iran’s military, the powerful Revolutionary Guard and authority over the country’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
The response from Washington was swift and cold. US President Donald Trump said Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to him. He told ABC News he wants a say in who leads Iran once the war ends and that any new leader will not last long without his approval. Trump also said on Sunday that the decision on when the war ends will be mutually made together with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, oil prices crossed $100 a barrel, Brent crude jumped 18 percent to $108.68 and US benchmark WTI climbed nearly 20 per cent to around the same level. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes for oil and gas, remains effectively closed because of the conflict. Regional producers, including Iraq, have cut output. The economic pressure building on global markets is significant and getting worse.
Dubai’s main airport took a direct hit on Saturday when a drone struck near the main terminal. Operations were suspended temporarily despite Iran having announced earlier it would stop targeting neighbouring countries. That promise clearly did not hold. Four people have been killed in drone attacks across the UAE, an Indian national, a Pakistani, a Nepali and a Bangladeshi among those who lost their lives. UAE air defences detected 16 ballistic missiles during the latest wave of attacks, intercepted 15 and one fell into the sea.
The US State Department ordered non-emergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia entirely. American citizens have been advised to reconsider travel to the country due to armed conflict risks and possible targeting of US interests.
Air India and Air India Express are operating extra flights connecting India with UAE destinations as Indian nationals continue to try to get home. The airspace over Saudi Arabia and Oman remains open for now.
What we know so far — The full picture
How it started
Go back to February 28. The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran after weeks of escalating pressure from Trump on Tehran to agree to a new nuclear deal. Negotiations had stalled completely. Trump had been ramping up the rhetoric for days. Then the strikes began.
The most significant outcome of that first wave of attacks was the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader for nearly four decades. His death did not end the conflict. It accelerated it.
Iran retaliated immediately and has not stopped since. The retaliation spread far beyond Iran’s borders into the wider Gulf region with hundreds of missiles and drones hitting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar over the ten days that followed.
The human cost
The numbers are staggering for a conflict that is only ten days old. At least 1,230 people have been killed in Iran. At least 397 in Lebanon, where Israel has been targeting Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah simultaneously, two Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon on the latest day of fighting and three people were injured inside Israel in an afternoon strike. At least 11 people have died in Israel itself.
Seven American soldiers have now been killed in the war. One US service member died from injuries sustained in an Iranian attack on US troops in Saudi Arabia on March 1.
Saudi Arabia recorded its first civilian deaths when a military projectile struck a residential compound in Al-Kharj, a maintenance and cleaning company’s housing, killing one Bangladeshi national. An Indian national was initially reported among the dead, but the Indian Embassy in Riyadh confirmed on Monday that no Indian was killed. One Indian national was injured and is receiving treatment at a government hospital in Al-Kharj.
Foreign workers, Indians, Bangladeshis, Pakistanis, and Nepalis, have made up a significant proportion of the civilian casualties across the Gulf. These are people who went to the Middle East to build better lives and are now caught in the middle of a war they had nothing to do with.
The wider damage
The conflict has stopped targeting just military infrastructure and started hitting the things ordinary people depend on. Bahrain accused Iran of striking one of its desalination plants, the facilities that produce drinking water for Gulf nations that have almost no natural freshwater supply. Oil depots in Tehran burned after Israeli overnight strikes, with environmental warnings being issued.
The Arab League chief came out publicly on Sunday and accused Iran of a reckless policy of attacking its neighbours, including countries that host US military forces. The anger across the Gulf region is building in ways that could reshape the region’s political alignments long after the fighting stops.
Iran’s new leadership
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the supreme leader is a significant and complicated development. He has no elected or appointed government position on his record. He steps into one of the most powerful roles in Iran, and arguably one of the most consequential positions in global geopolitics, in the middle of an active war.
The Revolutionary Guard has expressed support. Hezbollah has expressed support. Senior Iranian security official Ali Larijani said the younger Khamenei was trained by his father and can handle the situation. Whether the Iranian public and the broader political establishment rally behind him in the same way remains to be seen.
Trump has already said he is unacceptable. That confrontation is only just beginning.
What comes next
Trump and Netanyahu have both said they will press ahead. Iran, under new leadership, has vowed to expand attacks on US targets. Oil is above $100. Dubai’s airport was hit on the weekend. Hundreds of thousands of Indian workers across the Gulf are trying to decide whether to stay or go home.
The Indian Embassy has told its citizens in Saudi Arabia to stay vigilant and follow local safety guidelines. Air India is running extra flights. The government is watching.
Ten days in and the conflict that started with airstrikes on February 28 has already killed nearly 1,700 people across multiple countries, pushed global oil prices to levels not seen in years, closed one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, changed Iran’s leadership mid-war and sent diplomatic shockwaves from Washington to Beijing.
Nobody is talking about this ending soon. And the people caught in the middle of it, the migrant workers, the families waiting by their phones, the ordinary residents of Gulf cities who went to sleep on Friday not knowing a drone would hit their airport the next morning, are running out of time to wait for someone to make it stop.
